In
this lesson the learner will define and use
probability to predict the chance of an event
occurring. Students will play a game of chance
and decide whether statistics are
appropriately used in real-world examples.
Purpose/Essential
Question:
How
do you use probability to predict the chance
of an event occurring?
Time
Frame: One 90-minute block
Resources/
Materials :
Rocket
Instruction Sheet Click to
download. Requires
Acrobat Reader.
(
straws, tape, colored typing paper, pencil,
scissors)
Student/Teacher
text
Reteaching
Worksheet (teacher choice)
Masking
Tape
Culminating
Assessment:
Students
will conduct an experiment and determine the
probability of the event based on the
responses.
Instructional
Activities:
Launch
Activity:
The
teacher will use a commonly known statistic
and discuss its applicability. Misuses of the
statistic will also be discussed to stimulate
student's thinking about probability and
statistics. (Ex: 4/10 American are Hispanic)
Cognitive
Teaching Strategies:
1.
The teacher will define probability as it
relates to the statistic discussed in the
activator. (Ex: What does 4/10 mean in South
Carolina? Is this true?)
2.
The teacher will model finding probability and
students will complete similar problems from
the text. (teacher choice)
3.
The teacher will introduce probability
notation p(occurrence) = ? The teacher will
also explain probabilities of 1 and 0,
supported by examples of each. Students will
cite examples of zero probability using items
or students in the classroom. For instance,
p(student having one eyebrow)?
4.
The teacher will model how to determine the
probability. Several guided examples will be
completed. Students will then complete a
worksheet on probability (teacher choice). The
teacher will circulate around the room, giving
assistance when needed.
5.
The teacher will choose several problems to
review with the class and answer any resulting
questions.
6.
Students will then receive the homework and be
placed in cooperative pairs for the
Summarizing/Culminating Activity.
Summarizing/Culminating
Assessment:
1.
Students will construct a rocket following the
directions on the Rocket Construction sheet.
2.
Students will then set an appropriate distance
for the rocket to travel. Mark the distance
with masking tape on the floor. Also mark the
halfway point with tape.
3.
Students will take turns firing the rocket at
least 20 times. Students will record the
distance each rocket traveled and whether it
exceeded the distance marked by the masking
tape.
4.
Each student will then determine the following
probabilities:
p(rocket
traveling past the marked distance) =
p(rocket
traveling past halfway point) =
p(
misfiring rocket) =
5.
Ask students to remain in pairs and write a
paragraph response to the following question.
All papers are due before the end of the
period.
·
Make a prediction of how far your rocket would
have traveled on the (nth) firing (full
distance, half distance, misfire)? Explain
your prediction.
·
Do you think you performed the experiment
enough times to make an educated guess? Why or
Why not?
·
What could you do to ensure that your rocket
would travel past the marked distance each
time?
ROCKET
CONSTRUCTION SHEET
Rocket
Assembly Items:
Pencil
Colored
typing paper
Scotch
tape
Scissors
Construction
1.
Each student will be given the assembly items.
2.
Students will cut the paper lengthwise into
equal halves.
3.
Students will wrap one half of the paper
snugly around the pencil and tape the outer
end. Students should not tape the inner
wrapping to the pencil. Only the outer end
should be secured with a small piece of tape.
This will form
the
body of the rocket.
4.
After carefully removing the pencil from the
body of the rocket it should resemble a
drinking straw.
5.
Cut both ends of the body of the rocket so
that they are level.
6.
Cut three "wings" should the
remaining half of the paper. Students are
encouraged to cut their wings in any shape
that they believe will allow their rocket to
travel farther. The length of the wings should
be no longer than 3 inches
7.
Use tape to affix the wings to one end of the
body of the rocket in a circular pattern.
8.
Press the other end of the rocket together and
secure with a piece of tape. This end should
be airtight.
9.
Insert the straw into the wing end (open end)
of the rocket and breath forcibly into the
straw.
10.
Record the distance the rocket traveled.
