|
Heads
or Tails
Designed
by: Tammy Hester
School: Gibbes Middle
Grade
Level: 7 Subject:
Mathematics
Core
Curriculum Objective: Find and compare
experimental and theoretical probabilities. (7SP2-1)
South
Carolina Curriculum Standards: VI.
Probability and Statistics C. 3.
Overview:
Students will experience hands-on how the
number of trials of an experiment affects the
relationship between theoretical and
experimental probabilities. Students will
understand the difference between theoretical
and experimental probabilities.
Focus
Question: If you were calling a toss in a
football game, would you call heads or tails?
Why?
Time
Frame: Two 50 minute periods
Resources:
Enough
pennies for each student to have one
Website:
shazam.econ.ubc.ca/flip/
Assessment:
Students will design their own problem and
determine the theoretical probability and
perform an experiment to determine the
experimental probability. Students will write a
report about their findings and share with the
class.
Day
One
Activity
One
The
teacher should as the following question:
"Suppose I flip this coin. Will it turn up
heads or tails?" Then, the teacher should
toss a coin to see the result. Repeat the
scenario. Next ask the students what is the
probability the next coin will be heads? Have
students give explanations for their answers.
Then
pose this question to the students.
"Suppose I flip all 10 coins, how many will
land on heads and how many will land on
tails?" Allow several students to give
their answers and reasons for their answers.
Explain
that the situation they have described is an
example of a theoretical probability. Have
students add this term to their notebooks. Guide
the students to see that a theoretical
probability is found by applying a formula.
Example:
P(H)=1/2 1 is the number of ways to toss
heads 2 is the number of possible outcomes
*****note******
tables for the following activities are provided
Activity
Two
Conduct
a simulation to find the experimental
probability of a similar problem.
1.
Go to website http://shazam.econ.ubc.ca/flip/
2.
Flip the coin 25 times and fill in the table
with the results.
3.
Combine the results from your simulation with
those from the other members of your class and
fill in the class data table.
After
the tables are completed, compare the results
from individual internet simulation with the
results obtained by the entire class. Explain
why they are different through class discussion.
Add
the term experimental probability to the
vocabulary section of your notebook. Guide
student to the understanding that experimental
probability is given by collecting data.
Activity
Three
Now
conduct the experiment using a penny. Flip the
penny 25 times. Record the results in the table.
Then collect the results of the class and fill
in the class table. Again, discuss the results.
Activity
Four
In
the journal section of the student's notebook
have them explain how the theoretical, Internet
simulation, and actual coin toss probabilities
compare with each other. Allow time for some
students to read their explanations.
Assessment:
1.
Students are to make up a problem similar to the
one in done in class.
2.
Determine the theoretical probability.
3.
Perform an experiment and determine the
experimental probability.
4.
Write a report about the experiment and the
results.
5.
Give an oral report to the class.
Rubric
for the assessment provided in the lesson plan.
Name_______________________________
Date___________ Period_________
Tables
for Internet Simulation Coin Toss
Website:
shazam.econ.ubc.ca/flip/
|
Individual
Internet Coin Toss Simulation |
| Number
of Heads |
Number
of Tails |
Total
Number of Flips |
Probability
Heads |
Probability
Tails |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Class
Data Internet Coin Toss Simulation |
| Number
of Heads |
Number
of Tails |
Total
Number of Flips |
Probability
Heads |
Probability
Tails |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Name_______________________________Date____________
Period________
Tables
for Actual Coin Toss Experiments
|
Individual
Coin Toss |
| Number
of Heads |
Number
of Tails |
Total
Number of Flips |
Probability
Heads |
Probability
Tails |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Class
Data From Coin Toss |
| Number
of Heads |
Number
of Tails |
Total
Number of Flips |
Probability
Heads |
Probability
Tails |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rubric
for Assessment of Individual Probability Problem
|
Rubric
for Probability Problem |
|
Name_________________________
Date _____________ Period _____ |
| Required
Item |
20
points |
15
points |
10
points |
5
points |
| Problem
stated |
Correctly
written, free of errors |
Correctly
written, one error |
Problem
is not a probability problem |
Problem
is not clear, but attempted |
| Theoretical
probability |
Correctly
given with explanation and formula |
Correctly
given, missing explanation or formula |
Incorrect,
but explanation or formula attempted |
Incorrect,
no explanation or formula given |
| Experimental
Probability |
Correctly
given with evidence and explanation of
experiment |
Correctly
given , missing evidence or explanation |
Incorrect,
but evidence or explanation attempted |
Incorrect,
no evidence or explanation or experiment |
| Written
report |
Title,
and all 3 parts included w/ through
explanation and evidence |
All
3 parts included, but support lacking in
one area |
All
3 parts included, but evidence poor in
more than one area |
One
or more parts are left out of the
report. |
| Oral
report |
Overview
of report clear and all parts presented.
3 to 5 minutes. |
Overview
of report clear and all parts presented.
Time frame not met. |
Report
is not clear and one component is left
out. |
Report
is not clear, components left out, less
than 3 minutes. |
| Subtotal |
|
|
|
|
| Total
points |
Final
Grade |
|
