The Game of Chance

Designed by: Betty Melvin, Denny Terrace Elementary 

1) Core Curriculum: Explore  the concept of probability using manipulatives (e.g. dice, spinners) and record observations.  (3SP2-1)

Grade Level:  Three       Subject:  Math

2) Overview: The students will explore the concept of probability using manipulates. They will use a number die. rolling a certain number on a  number die.  The students will predict the outcomes. Each student in the group will roll the die and record the outcome. The class will use the results to determine which number will the die land on most likely?  Certain? Equally likely? Or not likely ? The students will create a number game using spinners. The students will determine whether the games are fair. They will use what they concluded about probability from the number dies and letters of their name to determine whether the games are fair.

3) Focus Question: What will happen if I roll my die.

4) Resources/Materials

Number die

Computer

E-mail Addresses of students in another class within the school

Spinners

Sheet of paper

Pencil

Activity Sheet

5) Culminating Activity: The teacher will divide the students into pairs. Each pair will be given a blank copy of a spinner, a brad and a paper clip. The students will create a number game using the spinner. The pair is to demonstrate the game to the class. The class will decide which games are fair and which are not.

                             Probability Rubric

0              No spinner constructed

1                    Spinner constructed, but no reasons given for design that has to do with   probability

2                    Spinner constructed ,but gives  little  reason for design that has  do with probability

3                    Spinner constructed and a clear and  accurate reason for design given that has to do with probability

6) Instructional Activities:

Activity One: The teacher will discuss what is probability with the students. The teacher will use the AverKeys  to demonstrate the Three Door Puzzle.

Discuss with students the three door puzzle. The teacher will model as she explains to students. Explain to students they will be confronted by a set of three closed doors (Show the students the three doors on the computer) Behind two of the doors they will find nothing. Behind one of the doors, chosen at random, is a cash prize: The student is to pick the door with the prize (Choose a door). However, after the students choice is made, but before their door is opened, one of the other doors is opened to reveal it is empty (One door is opened, but not the one chosen by the teacher). At that time, the student is given the option of keeping the door they chose or switch to the other unopened door (teacher demonstrates by making a choice and showing the students what will happen).  Teacher discusses with the students the chances of choosing the correct door. Also, the teacher gives the students the opportunity to play the game at least 10 times to see what happens.  The teacher ask the students what is the probability that you will get the prize if you keep the door you have originally chosen and what is the probability that you will get the prize if you change your selection to the other unopened door?

The teacher will give each pair of students a number die. He/she will ask the students to look at the sides of the die. How many sides does it have? If you roll the die, which number do you think you will land on? Why?

Does each number have an equally likely chance to be landed on? Why? Or why not?

The teacher is to give each pair of students a number die and an activity sheet.  The teacher will use a number die and activity sheet (transparency) to demonstrate what the students will do. The teacher will predict what number will be rolled and write it in the predict column on the activity sheet. The teacher will have the students to predict what number will be rolled and write it in the predict column on their activity sheet. Next, the teacher will roll the number die and write what was rolled in the actual column on the activity sheet (transparency). The teacher will have the students to roll their die and write what was rolled in the actual column. The teacher will have the students to predict and roll the die 5 times.  

The teacher will conclude the activity by discussing with the class which number occurred the most? Which number occurred the least? What did they conclude about probability using this activity?

Activity Two: The teacher will review the previous lesson. The teacher will write her name on a sheet of paper and  show this to students. She will cut the letters apart (e.g. B,E,T,T,Y) Ask the students how many letters am I putting in the bag?  The students should answer five. The teacher will pull out one paper and before showing it to the students ask,  "what are the chances of it being B? E? T? Y? Does each letter have the same chance of being pulled out?"  (No) The teacher will pull letters out to demonstrate until  all letters have been pulled out (e.g. T(2,5) ).

The students are to write their first and last names and cut the letters apart. They are to put these letters into a bag. The student is to determine the probability (chance) of drawing each letter in his first and last name.  They are to write down  the chance of drawing each letter? The teacher will allow the students  to e-mail their results to another class within the school.

Activity Three: This is the culminating activity. The teacher will divide the students into pairs. Each pair will be given a blank spinner, a brad and a paper clip. The students are to construct a spinner  that might be used in game. The class will determine whether each spinner is fair.